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UMass Poll: Warren Holds Slim Lead over Brown

AMHERST, Mass. (WGGB) – On the eve of their Springfield debate, a new UMass poll shows Democrat Elizabeth Warren holding on to a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Senator Scott Brown.

Poll results from an internet survey conducted by UMass and YouGov America from October 2 to 8 shows Warren with a 48 percent to 46 percent lead over Brown among likely voters.

The poll sampled 500 registered voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.

When it came to registered voters, Warren’s lead grew very slightly to 49 percent versus Brown’s 43 percent.

Associate poll director Ray La Raja says, “The Massachusetts Senate race is not a mirror image of the presidential race. By a fairly wide margin, President Obama remains more popular among un-enrolled Massachusetts voters than Elizabeth Warren, while Mitt Romney is easily eclipsed by Scott Brown among this same group. In a fairly liberal state, it suggests that Brown has done a good job insulating himself from Romney and the national Republican Party.”

The poll does also show that Brown holds an 11 point lead among independents and 43 percent of those surveyed see him as more likely work with Democratic leaders in Congress.

Warren, however, is favored more by women by 9 points and among low-income voters (earning less than $40,000) by 6 points.

“The so-called 47 percent could be Brown’s Achilles heel. He’s way down with voters in the lower half of income. And he still has a yawning gap with women voters. He may want to make a pitch to these voters during the Springfield debate,” La Raja adds.

When it comes to likeability, voters see Brown as more likeable but also believe that he has run a more negative campaign than Warren. Forty-five percent of voters believed that Brown’s campaign was negative, compared to 26 percent for Warren.

Brown and Warren are set to take the stage Wednesday in Springfield for their third televised debate.

You can watch that debate starting at 7:00 p.m. LIVE on ABC40, FOX 6, and online at wggb.com.

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